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544期 11月28日:Does Family Planning Policy Matter? Dynamic ...

544期 11月28日:Does Family Planning Policy Matter? Dynamic Evidence from China(王非, 中国人民大学)
来源:经济学院

【主讲】王非 (中国人民大学)

【主题】Does Family Planning Policy Matter? Dynamic Evidence from China

【时间】2014年11月28日(周五) 15:30-17:00

【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼801室

【语言】英文

【摘要】 This paper estimates dynamic e ects of China's family planning policies on fertil- ity using an individual-level panel sample from the China Health and Nutrition Sur- vey. This paper applies a multiple-spell mixed-proportional hazard model where the unobserved individual heterogeneity is non-parametrically estimated, as suggested by Heckman and Singer (1984). Simulations from the model estimates nd that the one-child policy, the harshest and ongoing family planning policy of China, reduced probabilities of having exactly 2 and 3 births by 31.1% and 35.3%, and correspond- ingly raised probabilities of childlessness and having exactly 1 birth by 54.9% and 67.0%. Policies prior to the one-child policy have shown similar but smaller e ects. However, simulations further show that, had there been no family planning policies, fertility levels would still have declined greatly over cohorts. Lastly, better-educated women are less likely to have a large number of births; women whose rst birth is a son tend to have smaller families than those whose rst child is a daughter.